Our Oscars Picks - 2017

Best Picture

Nominees

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Jack Thinks:
I think this is one of the better years that I've covered and all the movies on the list are deserving to one extent or another. It's really great to see a field of films that are pretty diverse in genre. Quite a few though I look at as movies that fill out the list, despite being very good. Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge and Lion are just tipped out for me. Fences and Hidden Figures did a fantastic job at bringing civil rights and race relations of a different time back to the fore. Hell or High Water was a great example of small storytelling and definitely deserved to be on the list. La La Land was great, but all the buzz makes it too obvious a choice, not to mention that musicals don't win Oscars (unless you're My Fair Lady). I really like both Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight, but it will have to go to the latter for me.

Ed Thinks:

From a personal standpoint, this is another close one. Arrival, Fences and Hell or High Water were all standout films; Lion would absolutely be a worthy winner, and if I had my way Manchester by the Sea would be right up top, with Hidden Figures a bit of a dark horse given the popularity it’s slowly been building. However, realistically the most likely to pick up the top award is La La Land. It has the industry draw-card and is widely tipped to breeze into a Best Picture win, but to be a bit ballsy - and sailing against an overwhelming wind - I think the hugely deserving Moonlight might chance an upset win for a couple of reasons: sections of the Academy vote against the popular sway, musicals generally have an uphill battle to Best Picture, it’s likely to be a politically charged Oscars, and this would be a great opportunity to bury last year’s #oscarssowhite controversy.

Marisa Thinks:
I'm so glad to see the amount of diversity in this year's list after last years calamity. I’m a sucker for musicals and the theatre, so I’m really rooting for La La Land in this category. I know that usually the film that deals with the heaviest subject matter seems to take the cake though, and this years’ nominees are certainly a mixed bag, but I’m allowed to dream!

Adam Thinks:

It seemed like 2016 was going to be void of any great Best Picture nominees, but over the last few months of the year, we became swarmed with them. Nearly all the nominees were released over the last few months of the year, and have made this one very hard to call. While movies like Hell or High Water and Arrival tell very interesting, creative stories, they seem to be missing that indescribable wow-factor of a Best Picture winner. Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are both amazing, emotional true stories and are well up there in my opinion, but I believe all the buzz around La La Land is warranted, and that the musical will take the top spot. Across the board its just a wonderful, beautiful, emotional movie. While it may be too 'light' of a movie for the Best Picture spot, Hollywood loves movies that bash on Hollywood.

Best Director

Nominees

• Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
• Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
• Damien Chazelle - La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

Ed Thinks:

Since it’s almost certain it won’t go to the controversial Gibson, I’d say the dark horse here would be Villeneuve who consistently puts his big-fat directorial stamp on his films. Lonergan’s directing was beautifully subtle but it’s more likely they’ll reward his writing in Best Screenplay, hence it’s another two horse race between Chazelle and Jenkins. The latter’s directing was arguably more refined as La La Land did have its sloppy moments but I think its bombastic ‘big’ nature and industry ties will get Damien Chazelle the win, however close it's likely to be.

Marisa Thinks:

I really hope that Barry Jenkins takes this. Moonlight is certainly one of a kind and he deserves an Oscar for his work. The way that this film manages to defy categorisation and really encapsulate us in these characters is something that the Academy ought to reward. Chazelle is probably a close second, and I don't see Gibson as being a huge contender in this category.

Adam Thinks:

This one is definitely between Chazelle and Jenkins. It is a respectful gesture for Gibson to be nominated for Hacksaw Ridge (which is definitely warranted), however I don’t think he will be able to edge out in-front to take the win. While Arrival and Manchester by the Sea were good movies, I don’t think they make a strong enough case for Best Director. While Jenkins did an amazing job on Moonlight, I believe La La Land will snag another win in this category and that Damien Chazelle will take the Oscar. While perhaps slightly imperfect, the sequences and vision of La La Land came together beautifully in the end, and Chazelle deserves the win in my opinion.

Jack Thinks:

Mel Gibson has made a lot of better films than this one, but I get that they're going for a redemption narrative. While Villeneuve did a good job with Arrival, I feel like he is more deserving for his earlier Hollywood films. Kenneth Lonergan did a great job at handling the heavy material of Manchester by the Sea, but I feel he might have a better chance with winning the award for Best Original Screenplay. I think that because La La Land lost in the last category, their might be a chance that Chazelle wins this one, but it's a hard choice. I'm going to have to go for Barry Jenkins because he nailed everything about that movie.

Best Actor

Nominees

• Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling - La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington - Fences

Marisa Thinks:

I don’t think that Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen hold a candle to the others in this category, as talented as they are. I’d love for Denzel Washington to take out this category as Fences has such depth and grit to it, but I have a feeling Casey Affleck will win (not that I agree with his nomination but hey, I’m not in charge). Sorry Ryan, I still love you.

Adam Thinks:

While La La Land was a great flick, the acting is not what carried the movie, so I doubt Gosling has a chance in this category. I can’t imagine Mortensen taking a win for a film like Captain Fantastic, and so I’d place this one between Garfield, Affleck and Washington. These are three incredible, emotionally charged performances that are almost too hard to pick between. I’ll be happy for any of these to take the win, and while I’d hope it goes to Andrew Garfield, I think Denzel Washington deserves the win more.

Jack Thinks:
After seeing Denzel in Fences I was really surprised at how different his performance was. I feel like Gosling was nominated more for his role in The Nice Guys which was a lot better. Andrew Garfield suffers from the same problem as he was way better in Silence. The award will go to Casey Affleck as his performances carried so much weight and emotion. It must have been a particularly hard role to play and from that he deserves it.

Ed Thinks:

Mortensen’s nomination is pretty unfathomable and he has no chance in this category, as with Andrew Garfield whose performance, whilst good, is eclipsed by some of the others here. Ryan Gosling was once a favourite but Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington gave two incredible dramatic performances which is turning this into easily the closest race of the whole evening. This is ultimately a coin flip but even though Denzel’s is more of an “Oscars performance” I’ll stick with Casey Affleck because his subdued portrayal is the better of the two.

Best Actress

Nominees

• Isabelle Huppert - Elle
• Ruth Negga - Loving
• Natalie Portman - Jackie
• Emma Stone - La La Land
• Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Adam Thinks:

I feel that Meryl Streep was nominated simply because she is Meryl Streep, and I will be disappointed if she wins this Oscar. While Emma Stone was great in La La Land, and probably better than Gosling, my point from above still stands, and I don’t think she deserves to win. She probably will win, and I’ll be happy if she does, but my pick here goes elsewhere. Natalie Portman was absolutely sublime in Jackie, plain and simple. While her performance is probably underappreciated (like the movie itself), I would place her miles ahead of the other contenders for Best Actress this year. Not to mention the fact that she nailed the unique accent of the titular character. It probably won’t go to Portman, but if it does it will be well deserved.

Jack Thinks:

This is a tough one because while all of these performances are very good, none of them stands out among the others. Meryl Streep definitely seems like an automatic nomination, she is who she is, so let's make sure she's in there. Natalie Portman might give a good performance, but to a lot of people I think it's going to come off as though she's just doing a different accent. Ruth Negga was fantastic in Loving, but I think that movie doesn't have enough recognition. Ultimately, I think it will go to Emma Stone, but I wouldn't be surprised if Isabelle Huppert gets it.

Ed Thinks:

Emma Stone is the most obvious choice here and is likely to be the only acting win for La La Land. Isabelle Huppert’s performance is equally fantastic but is less likely, and Ruth Negga has not really had enough coverage. Meryl’s nomination is more of an industry nod, and Natalie Portman’s incredible performance as Jackie Kennedy just flew too far under the radar like the film itself to really be anything but a middle contender/dark horse.

Marisa Thinks:
I agree with Jack on this one, its hard to pick one out from the rest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Meryl Streep wins due to past history in this category. I am a little surprised to see that Natalie Portman got a nomination as I didn’t think Jackie made that much of a splash. But I’d love it if Emma Stone took it out, her work in La La Land was great and a her chemistry with Gosling just helped her performance shine even more. I'm also glad that she's getting recognised as more than just the 'cute movie girlfriend'. Fingers crossed she’s a winner this year.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

• Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel - Lion
• Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

Jack Thinks:
Hands down this one is Mahershala Ali. His performance is raw and emotional and you can feel the emotional dilemma he has worked himself into. Jeff Bridges is only playing himself and it kind of seems beleaguered to nominate him. Michael Shannon is only being nominated to recognise his great body of work. As for Lucas Hedges, well he was very likeable. 

Ed Thinks:

Lock this one in for Mahershala Ali whose short performance was captivating and will likely be pushed further over the line by his powerful SAG awards speech - as always there’s a lot going on external to the performance that determines these things. Dev Patel does still have a chance and would certainly deserve the win, Lucas Hedges was fine but lucky to get nominated. I feel Michael Shannon is a little too indie to get widespread recognition from the academy, and unless they go for a veteran nod to Bridges he’s not really in the picture for a win.

Marisa Thinks:
I’m a little surprised by the nominees in this category this year, especially seeing Lucas Hedges and Jeff Bridges' names crop up. My two picks here are probably Dev Patel and Mahershala Ali, but my brain is telling me that Ali will take this for sure. The pain and power behind his performance really come through in Moonlight and he seems the most deserving out of all the nominees.

Adam Thinks:

I can’t see this award going anywhere other than to Mahershala Ali. While the other nominees are good and probably deserve their nominations, this is probably the clearest category of the year.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

• Viola Davis - Fences
• Naomie Harris - Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman - Lion
• Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

Ed Thinks:

Octavia Spencer’s performance was fairly light and not what the Academy usually go for. Nicole Kidman I felt gave a huge amount more than usual in Lion but still seems a long-shot. Both Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams were heart wrenchingly real in their roles and would equally deserve the win, but ultimately this is Viola Davis’s to lose because Fences is very much an 'actors movie' and her role was arguably a lead performance, so she had the screen-time to outclass the others.

Marisa Thinks:
There are certainly quite a few deserving women in this category. I think that Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are tied pretty close for this one, with Michelle Williams coming in third. Both Fences and Hidden Figures deserve all the accolades that they’re getting, but I’m going to go with Viola Davis just because she’s such a badass and her role seemed to be tailored towards an Oscar win.

Adam Thinks:

All these performances carry a lot of heart and soul, and no doubt the actresses gave their all in each of them. While Nicole Kidman was alright in Lion, she is probably the least likely to win on this list. Harris and Williams were both captivating and emotional in their important roles, but I don’t think the win will go to either of them. I think Viola Davis will edge out Octavia Spencer for the win. Davis arguably shared the lead role with Washington in Fences and, in a movie driven mostly by characters and emotional dialogue, they had a lot of room to impress (and they both did).

Jack Thinks:
This is the toughest list for me to pick out this year as it is filled with four performances that are all deserving (sorry Nicole). I'm a huge fan of Octavia Spencer and she brought some much needed lightness to her film, but she already won her Oscar for playing a very similar character. Naomie Harris' unflinching portrayal of crack addiction is heartbreaking and amazing, but ultimately feels like it's happening concurrent to the main character's development. While Viola Davis does act as the foil to Denzel, I'm going to have to choose Michelle Williams, as her character's development directly impacts the lead and is absolutely heart wrenching at the same time.